The implications are severe, not just for climate but for the effects on food, water supplies and other commodities. Australia, still recovering from its worst drought in a century, will be hit again if the rains fail to nourish its wheat belt. Indonesia is one of the world’s biggest producers of palm oil — a basic source of income for many of its poor — and a drought would hit this commodity hard.
Farming in India is already suffering from an abnormal monsoon, which scientists think could be related to the emerging El Niño.
The rains arrived early but stalled. They picked up speed again only last week and covered the whole of the country, although rainfall is far lower than normal. There are fears that, if the rains do not improve, water shortages will kill crops and lead to soaring food prices.
The emerging El Niño is expected to continue strengthening over the next few months and reach a peak during the northern hemisphere’s winter. However, every bout of El Niño is different and much depends on the extent to which the Pacific warms up. At present forecasters say that it is too early to assess this El Niño — the NOAA’s meteorologists expect to have a clearer picture in September or October — but early signs suggest that it could become a moderate-to-strong episode.
