North-western European Potato Growers expect cropsize to be below 5-year average

The North-western European Potato Growers (NEPG) expect the total potato production (excluding seed and starch potatoes) of this year' s harvest to amount to 24.5 million tonnes.

This is 14.1 percent below the potato production last year and 2.9 percent below the 5-year average. This is lower than the estimate NEPG provided in June, when the organisation predicted a total yield of 0.9% below the 5-year average.

The NEPG predictions are mainly based on sampling of the growing crop in the five NEPG countries (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Great Britain and France)

Acreage and Yield both lower

The total acreage in the five NEPG countries has dropped 3.7 % to 527110 hectares. However, the yield per hectare is more important for the annual variations in overall yield than the number of hectares. After recent rainfall, part of the crop is still producing well, but there are large differences between regions and individual fields. These differences are more pronounced than in previous years.

Since the general expectation for this season is rather positive, potato growers may postpone the harvest in order to generate maximum yields. Harvesting late does introduce additional risks: weather conditions and the combination of low soil temperatures and a high dry matter content of the potatoes requires careful consideration.

The occurrence of secondary growth provides mainly for the potato variety Bintje (45% of the acreage in Belgium) a major uncertainty. Tuber counts are lower, with the exception of Bintje, which shows a higher number as usual, but with less length. The percentage of tubers larger than 50mm is average for all varieties.

It is expected that the overall yield in Belgium will deviate most form the yield last year and the 5-year average. The average yield in Germany is OK, just as in a large part of France and the new polders in the Netherlands. Since there are no figures available for recent crop sampling in Great Britain, the 5-year average was used in the overview. For the first time, potato acreage in Great Britain has decreased below 100.000 hectares, a drop of 7.7% compared to last season and 10.5% below the 5-year average acreage.

In October the final figures are expected for the 5 NEPG countries.

The NEPG expresses it has a positive view on potato season 2015/2016, in particular as a result of the growing demand from industry. Especially export of finished product outside Europe is increasing. Furthermore, the low yields all over Europe offer opportunities for export of table potatoes to both Eastern Europe and Southern Europe.