What will potato harvest 2010 bring? A brief look at the situation in North-West Europe and North America.
North-West Europe
The North-west European Potato growers (NEPG) predict for 2010 a potato acreage in North-West Europe (NL,B,UK,DE)very similar to 2009 (linked article in Dutch)
The only area where a significant growth of the potato acreage is reported, is Belgium (Vlaanderen). Acreage in Vlaanderen is predicted to go up 6.6%. This growth has largely been linked to the increase of french fry production in Belgium. Potato processing in Belgium is expected to pass the 3 million tonnes potatoes in 2010. An amazing growth, if you consider that the level of 2 million tonnes processed was reached in 2004. This puts the Belgian potato processing volume at a level very much comparable to the production in the Netherlands.
Despite the growth in Belgium, the overall acreage in North-West Europe is not expected to increase, mainly because of a 2.8% drop in acreage in the United Kingdom.
The current hot topic in Europe is not the acreage but the expected yield, as weather (cold spring, drought, heatwave) is having a potentially detrimental impact.
Early potatoes for processing in Europe/Belgium are delayed by 2 to 3 weeks and lower yields are predicted. E.g for the early potato variety Premiere thePCA Kruishoutem predicts only half the normal yield (in Dutch). The "gap" due to the late harvest and low yield of early potatoes was filled by the left-overs from last years crop.
However, similar concerns exist for the main crop. The main harvest for the potato processing industry still has several weeks to go. The big question is to what extent yield will be affected by the weather conditions: Romain Cools of Belgapom: "As a result of the cold spring, potato plants are less developed and as a result the hills gets more exposure to solar radiation and heat, resulting in water evaporation and stress."
Recent rain may have corrected potato yields to some extent, but it is not just a question of yield. For processors it is also a matter of quality. High soil temperatures (due to the heat combined with poor leaf coverage due to the (earlier) drought) could easily wreak havoc by inducing secondary growth (Dutch: doorwas), with a whole array of potential quality issues.
Prices of potatoes have gone up dramatically and both Dutch and Belgian french fry manufacturershave already stated that the price of french fries will increase this season (in Dutch).
United States
The United States Department of Agriculture just released the official estimates of the potato acreage in the United States. Fall production is down more than 4%. Striking is the reduction in Idaho, down almost 8%.
| Fall Potato crop, area planted(NASS, USDA) | |||||
| United States | 1000 ha | 1000 acres | Change | ||
| 2010 | 2009 | 2010 | 2009 | % | |
| Idaho | 119.4 | 129.5 | 295 | 320 | -7.8 |
| Washington | 54.6 | 58.7 | 135 | 145 | -6.9 |
| North Dakota | 36.4 | 33.6 | 90 | 83 | 8.4 |
| Wisconsin | 25.3 | 25.7 | 62.5 | 63.5 | -1.6 |
| Maine | 22.5 | 22.7 | 55.5 | 56 | -0.9 |
| Minnesota | 17.4 | 19.0 | 43 | 47 | -8.5 |
| Other States | 87.1 | 90.1 | 215.1 | 222.6 | -3.4 |
| Total | 362.7 | 379.3 | 896.1 | 937.1 | -4.4 |
Canada
The official potato acreage estimates for Canada are not yet published. Initial indications are that the Canadian Potato acreage is slightly down. The PEI potato Board indicated the acreage is similar to last year, while New Brunswick Dept. of Agriculture and Aquaculture expected a reduction of 2500-3000 acres on a total of 55.000 acres in 2009 (about -5%). Bruce Huffaker (NAPMN) predicted for Canada overall a 4.1% decrease. Once Agriculture Canada publishes the official estimates later in in July, we will publish them on PotatoPro.
