GB Potato supply 2012: updated provisional estimate

Due to the importance of business information in an exceptional season AHDB/PCL has updated its estimates following the receipt of further Grower Panel(Note 1) yield forms, updated lifting data and additional intelligence.

Average yields for GB are now estimated at 38.1 tonnes/ha against an original estimate of 37.4 tonnes/ha. The revised end of season lifting estimate indicates unlifted area of less than 5%.

Due to the increase in yield provisional 2012 GB production is now estimated to be 4.64 million tonnes (Note 2), down 24% from 2011 and the lowest GB production since 1976. This reduction is due to both lower planted area and lower yields.

Planted area is still estimated at 121,800 ha (Note 3), down 5% from 2011. Average yields (Note 4) for GB are now estimated down 20%, to 38.1 tonnes/ha, compared with 47.4 t/ha in 2011.

The end of season lifting estimate now indicates a smaller unlifted area than previously reported. It is estimated to be less than 5% of total planted area. It is not viable to report further updates due to the late stage of harvest completion and uncertainties surrounding the exceptional season.

From April, planting progress and crop development were affected by unusually cold, dull and wet conditions across GB. All regions were affected by the difficult conditions but the magnitude of the impact varied crucially on when crops were planted, soil type and topography.
 

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Total Potato Production in Great Britain 2002-2012

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UK potato planting and production 2012

1. Yields are estimated from the Grower Panel, which is a stratified random sample of 835 sample crops from 409 growers. For this report, data from a sub-sample of 467 crops was available, an increase of 153 from the sample used for the November release. The estimate for net yield has confidence limits of ± 3% - this is very similar to the equivalent confidence limits from the last three years and unchanged from the November estimate. Confidence limits give the range around the sample mean within which there is a 95% probability that the true mean lies.


2. Total Production is the total harvested volume of the GB crop measured in metric tonnes. It excludes field leavings and material graded out prior to storage or sale.


3. The area estimate of 121,800 ha includes all potato plantings in GB and is made up of both Potato Council registered and unregistered area. It is based on a regression sample of 84% of registered growers, as published on 5th September 2012. The area estimate has confidence limits of ± 0.7% - this is very similar to the equivalent confidence limits from the last three years.


4. Potato yields are net of crop losses (areas that cannot be harvested) and on-farm grading waste. The level of statistical variability of the sample used to construct the 2012 yield estimate is very similar to the level calculated from the final 2011 sample.
   
   Anecdotal evidence suggests that, given conditions this year and the high prices that current exist in the market, utilisation by packers and processors is expected to be higher due to changes in quality and size specification. Therefore overall packing and processing waste is expected to be lower than a typical year.