‘Climate breakdown’: 2023 expected to be hottest year humanity has experienced

Scientists confirmed this week that summer 2023 was the hottest season the world has ever seen by a large margin. Europe is warming almost twice as fast as the global average, at about 2.2C above pre-industrial times.

Dr. Samantha Burgess, Deputy director at EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S):
 

"It's hugely pronounced on the graph, and it makes me really nervous for what's to come."

The boreal (northern hemisphere) summer June-July-August leapt to an average temperature of 16.77C - 0.66°C above the average for this time of year.
  Dr. Samantha Burgess:
 

"This is one of the challenges that we face as a climate scientist."

The new record isn’t out of line with what scientists had predicted for this period - albeit on the “outer edge” of that range. Earth has sweltered through its hottest Northern Hemisphere summer ever measured, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Dr. Samantha Burgess:
 

"What makes me nervous is the dynamics that we can see in the system. If I look at the graph of ocean heat, I'm wondering where it's going to go, because we're not at the time of year where it should be at maximum."

For starters, the ocean has never been this warm. Secondly, we’re in an El Niño year, which has a warming impact on global temperatures. Scientists expect the worst effects of the current El Nino to be felt at the end of 2023 and into next year.

Dr. Samantha Burgess:
 

"We also know that each El Niño is different and that no other El Niño has ever started with an ocean this warm. So we don't know yet how strong an event it’s going to be, and we're watching very carefully over the next few months."

2023 is on track to not only break records for the hottest summer, but to be the hottest year the world has ever seen. Currently, it’s 0.01 degrees behind 2016 for the same period.

Dr. Samantha Burgess:
 

"With that heat in the global ocean, 2023 - unless we have a crazy cold winter and autumn - 2023 will be the warmest year we've ever had."

But, this ‘hottest summer of our life’ could be remembered as one of the coldest if emissions are not urgently reigned in. July 2023 remains the hottest month ever recorded, while August's record makes the northern hemisphere's summer the hottest since records began in 1940.

Dr. Samantha Burgess:
 

"With that El Niño developing, 2024 is likely to be the warmest still."

Global heating is ushering in more extreme events, as just one European country’s summer shows. Greece has suffered fire and floods in quick succession; earlier this week, one region received almost double its average annual rainfall over two days.

Researchers have found that each degree Celsius the atmosphere heats increases the amount of water vapour it can hold by 7 per cent.