Restaurants struggle as consumers eat at home

February 22, 2009
Cash-strapped consumers are getting reacquainted with cooking at home, and that's been bad news for restaurants and their stocks. The dining-out industry is suffering through a major fire in the kitchen. Slowing business is forcing chains to shutter locations. Restaurants that remain open are seeing a drop-off in sales.

Shares of the top 26 restaurant companies have seen their stocks lose an average 49.3% of their value from their highest points over the past 52 weeks. That's been an even harsher pullback than the 46.5% decline of the Standard &Poor's 500 from its 52-week high.

There's even deeper pain suffered by individual restaurants and their investors. Ruth's Hospitality (RUTH), operator of the Ruth's Chris Steak Houses;DineEquity (DIN), which runs IHOP and Appleby's;and Ruby Tuesday (RT) have all seen their stocks fall nearly 90%.

Meanwhile, 20 members of the retail and restaurants industry classification are dangerously close to having trouble keeping up with the interest payments on their corporate debt, S&P says. That makes it the third-most-pressured industry group among the 21 that S&P considers the weakest. Meanwhile, nine of the top 26 publicly traded companies have posted losses in their most recent quarters.

The question is, when will the restaurants do better and the stocks turn around?

With little clarity of when the economy will heal, restaurant stocks by and large continue to sink, according to Lynne Collier, restaurant analyst at KeyBanc.

Collier doesn't expect the restaurant industry's turnaround to come for at least 12 months and possibly up to 24 months.

Still, as soon as consumers feel more confident that they'll hang onto their jobs, they will quickly resume dining out, Collier says.  
Shares of restaurant stocks are suffering as consumers cut back on dining out:
CompanySymbol
Stock price Friday
Change from 52-week high
Year-to-date change
Wendy's/Arby'sWEN
$4.86
-16.9%
-1.6%
McDonald'sMCD
$54.57
-18.6%
-12.3%
BJ's RestaurantsBJRI
$11.99
-24.9%
11.3%
McCormick &Co.MKC
$30.15
-28.3%
-5.4%
Panera BreadPNRA
$46.28
-28.8%
-11.4%
Texas RoadhouseTXRH
$8.45
-30.2%
9.0%
Buffalo Wild WingsBWLD
$31.24
-30.5%
21.8%
Papa John's InternationalPZZA
$21.19
-30.9%
15.0%
Jack in the BoxJACK
$20.48
-32.5%
-7.3%
Steak n ShakeSNS
$6.31
-33.2%
6.1%
CEC EntertainmentCEC
$25.33
-36.0%
4.5%
California Pizza KitchenCPKI
$10.66
-37.0%
-0.6%
PF Chang's China BistroPFCB
$19.30
-41.5%
-7.8%
StarbucksSBUX
$9.58
-50.4%
1.3%
CKE RestaurantsCKR
$7.06
-51.1%
-18.7%
Chipotle Mexican GrillCMG
$55.50
-54.2%
-10.5%
Brinker InternationalEAT
$10.89
-54.4%
3.3%
SonicSONC
$9.22
-60.5%
-24.2%
The Cheesecake FactoryCAKE
$8.09
-65.2%
-19.9%
Red Robin Gourmet BurgersRRGB
$14.67
-66.3%
-12.8%
Landry's RestaurantsLNY
$5.70
-72.6%
-50.9%
O'Charley'sCHUX
$2.99
-76.9%
49.5%
McCormick &Schmick's Seafood RestaurantsMSSR
$2.93
-78.7%
-27.1%
Ruby TuesdayRT
$1.26
-86.4%
-19.2%
Ruth's Hospitality GroupRUTH
$1.03
-87.8%
-25.4%
DineEquityDIN
$6.16
-88.5%
-46.7%
Source: Standard &Poor's Capital IQ
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