Turkey could face a record potato crop in 2023, record exports but risks a price collapse

In 2023, a sharp increase in potato production is expected in Turkey, which is among the top 15 world’s largest exporters of the crop, according to Eastfruit Analysts.
Statistics for seed potato imports confirm these expectations. In the first four months of 2023, Turkey imported 28.5 thousand tons of seed potatoes, which is a new historical import record. This is also 91% more than the volume of seed imports for the same period of 2022.

The main volumes of seed potatoes, namely 79%, were supplied from the Netherlands. Another 7% of seed tubers were imported from the UK, 6% from France, 4% from Germany and 2% from Belgium.

The sharp increase in potato production in Turkey is a reaction to high table potato prices in the region and on the local market. In particular, under the influence of the rapid growth of domestic potato prices, the Turkish government banned its exports in early 2023.

The export ban also included onions, which were also extremely expensive. As a result, in January-April 2023, potato exports from Turkey amounted to only less than 13,000 tons, while a year earlier, 113,000 tons were exported over the same period.

It should be noted that in 2021, potato exports from Turkey reached 265 thousand tons, which was the record volume. The main markets for Turkish potatoes are Syria, Iraq, UAE, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Oman, and Turkmenistan.

Given the prospects for very high potato production in Turkey in 2023, we should expect a significant reduction in prices for this product. Therefore, the geography of exports is likely to expand significantly. This is also not good news for Georgia’s potato growers, as the pressure from inexpensive Turkish imports could be even greater than usual during the new season.

On the other hand, potato importers from Uzbekistan could view this as a good opportunity to diversify their imports. After all, Uzbekistan is one of the largest importers of potatoes in the world but it has not imported significant volumes of potatoes from Turkey before.

We should also note that recent devaluation of Turkish lira should contribute to good prospects of the potato exports from Turkey.