NEPG estimate for the 2016 potato harvest: More acres, less production and a lot of uncertainty

The North-western European Potato Growers (NEPG) expect in the 5 covered countries (NL, B, FR, GB, DE) a lower production of potatoes (seed and potatoes.for starch production not included) compared to last season.

The production for 2016 is estimated at 24.9 million tons while in 2015 25.9 million ton was harvested.

The losses due to the flooding are included in these numbers.

Despite an expansion of the acreage by 4.8% compared to last season, yield is expected to be 1.6% lower. Compared to the 5-year averages, the acreage is up 3.4 % and the production is down 2.2%

Large differences

In Germany, an average harvest is expected, but in the Netherlands, France and Great Britain the production is estimated to be lower.

In Belgium a very low production is expected, despite an expansion of the acreage by 12%: production in Belgium is estimated to be 5.8% below the production of last season.

Not only are there major regional differences, but there are major differences between potato varieties as well, something that is not typically seen.

The potato variety Fontane - the variety that saw the largest increase in acreage in the NEPG - will suffer from high waste levels due to growth cracks and green tubers.

In general, losses above average are expected in general.

In addition, the dry matter content of the tubers is high, making the tubers susceptible to bruising during harvest and handling.

Higher cost of production, and higher losses.

Harvest is later than normal in all countries, most of the potatoes still need to be harvested. This increases the risks of problematic harvest conditions.

The NEPG emphasizes that the cost of production for the potato growers increased this year as a result of extra costs for crop protection as well as the low yields per hectare.

The difference between harvested amounts and the useful fraction will also be higher because of the growth cracks, green tubers and other quality issues.

Potato Prices

Potato prices on the open market are still stable after last season and may actually rise as a result of the low production this season.

Contract farmers may run into some problems due to the low yield and discounts due to quality. On the other hand, this may lead to some additional demand on the open market.