Harvest Estimation North-Western European Potato Growers adjusted downwards to 24.5 million tonnes

The official NEPG (North-Western European Potato Growers) harvest estimation has been adjusted downwards this week for the 5 leading potato countries.

This year the total harvest is estimated at 24,551,000 tons, which is 3% lower than last year and 3.6% than the 5 year average. The quantities are gross harvest figures.

Main reasons were the wet and fresh end of spring (May-June) and a hot and (very) dry summer. Especially the new processing varieties showed a lower performance this year.

More tare expected

In general the potato quality is good, however the NEPG expects higher wastage this year, and growers have to discuss the specifications carefully with their clients before they supply their contracted potatoes.

All the available potatoes are processed, be it imports from Poland, oversized seed, double-end varieties and also cracked or misshaped potatoes in the usual processing potatoes. Farmers notice that wastage percentages can be very different from one processor to the other.

As the processing capacity has increased enormously, also due to the increased export outside the EU, the NEPG expects some friction between demand and supply. The actual higher price level and future market for April 2017 are emphasizing this.

Normally the official NEPG estimation is published by the beginning of November however, due to the late harvest in all countries the estimations were delayed.

Next season

The NEPG has indications that the next years contract prices will increase due to the “hunger” for raw material by the potato processing sector. The first signed contracts for processing potatoes in Germany will be announced soon. Higher prices compared to last season are expected.

The NEPG also puts question marks at the availability of sufficient seed potatoes for the processing varieties. Next years seed potato prices for Bintje are higher than usual.

Although the demand for processing potatoes increases the NEPG is concerned that the area will keep in balance with the demand next season.