The first estimate of total potato plantings for the 2015 crop year in Great Britain from AHDB
Potatoes is 113,100 hectares. This is down 6.6% on the final 2014 planting figure of 121,100
ha.
This initial estimate is provisional, being based on a sample covering 64% of producers
by area. As with all estimates based on a sample, results should be treated with caution as,
despite every effort to make the sample as representative as possible, there is a possibility
that the planting decisions made by those not included in the sample may differ from those
who are included.
Figure 1 shows a time series of GB plantings while Table 1 sets out the data underlying Figure
1. The primary source of the area information is AHDB Potatoes’ Planting Returns. This
includes all growers with plantings in excess of 3 ha. To this are added an allowance for
unregistered areas. This is based on the analysis of results from aerial survey and Planting
Return audits.
Table 1: Registered and total plantings by crop year in thousands ha. 2015 figures are provisional.
*Production estimate for 2015 based on 5 year average yield.
Source: AHDB Potatoes
For instance, yields over the five year period were as low as 36.9 t/ha in 2012 and as high as 47.4 t/ha in 2011 and 2014. If 2012 is excluded, on the basis that unusual weather conditions created an outlier, the average yield over the period would be 46.6 t/ha, giving a production figure of 5.27 million tonnes in 2015.
Actual yields for this year will depend on the weather and other factors for the rest of the growing season.
The five-season average yield figure and the initial estimate of GB planted area are then used to provide a preliminary indication of GB total production. This estimate is likely to change significantly over the course of the year as more information on planted area and yields is received.
AHDB Potatoes’ estimate of planted area for 2015 will be updated at the end of August when a breakdown by variety will also be provided. A production estimate based on actual 2015 yields will be published in mid-November.
