KMC: EU Potato Starch Shortage in 2010/2011? Market expectations August 2010

Danish Potato Starch manufacturer KMC provided earlier this month the following market outlook on the global potato starch sector. The outlook contains a stark warning: there may be a shortage of EU potato starch ahead:

The year 2009/2010 was yet another year with significant changes in the market dynamics – this seems to continue into 2010/2011.
 
2009/2010
With the global economy coming slowly out of the financial crisis the global starch demand for food and technical industries returned more or less to normal during the year. However, the supply side was heavily affected by shortage in leading starch producing countries like Thailand, China and Indonesia resulting in a sharply increasing demand for potato starch from EU. Consequently, the carry over stocks of European potato starch has almost disappeared during the year.
 
2010/2011
The message from almost all corners of the World is the same: Weather conditions have not been favorable for growing agricultural products. Drought and flooding are expected to reduce potato yields 10-25% all over Europe. Heat and drought in Russia is expected to reduce the harvest of wheat by 30%. Both China and Thailand are reporting very low expected yields due to a combination of drought, flooding and insects.
 
Even though the sandy soil and good irrigation possibilities in Denmark allows KMC to mitigate most problems arising from heat and drought, also KMC in 2010/2011 seems to be facing a crop significantly below normal. Some change - up or down - can of course still take place but at this time it is difficult to believe that 2010/2011 will not be a year of shortage of EU potato starch.