2023 Potato Crop Canada, update per July 18 – Including Planted Acreage

Statistics Canada released their first estimate of potato acreage in Canadaas a result of data obtained from their survey of potato growers in Canada. The 2023 potato acreage is estimated at 396,922 acres. This is a 2.5% increase over 2023; 9,819 acres more than last year.

In 2022 acreage had been very flat over 2021, an increase of only 2,818 acres in contrast to a big jump in 2021 post-COVID. The majority of increases we have seen in the last two to three years have been predominantly in the major processing provinces, bringing supply back to meet demand increases in the industry that began pre-COVID.

However, due to significant rises in input costs starting in early 2021, coupled with increased interest rates and land costs, as well as seed shortages, most areas in Canada saw acreage remain fairly flat compared to last year. The largest acreage increase in 2023 was reported in Alberta, planting an additional 6,920 acres representing a 9.5% increase over last year.

Most of this increase is in the processing sector responding to continued increases in global demand for frozen fries as well as the announcement earlier this year regarding the planned expansion of the McCain Coaldale facility.

All other provinces showed increases in planted acreage for this crop year at varying levels, with the exception of Quebec who posted a 731 acre decrease compared to 2022 (based on the revised acreage figure of February 2023).

Most regions reported differences in acreage figures depending on the sector, with some like Quebec down in chip but up in frozen and flat on table and seed; or Manitoba slightly up in fresh but flat in processing. Historical numbers for each province follow on page 2 to show trends in overall planted acreage.

From planted acreage we would extrapolate to potato production based on historical averages. Although the 5 year average for abandonment in Canada is at 2.9% due to high levels in 2018 and 2019, we feel that this year will be closer to 2022 levels of 1.5%.

Based on current growing conditions we feel that overall yield for Canada will be close to the estimate for the 2022 crop of 322.3. Based on this yield and including the abandonment of approximately 1.5%, we would estimate the total production for Canada to be close to 1.26 million cwt in 2023, exceeding last year's crop by close to 3 million cwt.